Will thermal power be completely replaced?

Ⅰ. Lessons from power outages

Have you ever experienced a power outage? Suddenly, everything goes dark, elevators stop, cell phones run out of power, and air conditioners shut down. That sense of helplessness makes one realize that electricity is the “air” of modern society.

In fact, major power outages have occurred worldwide:

The 2003 North American blackout left tens of millions of users in darkness overnight.

During the 2021 Texas cold snap, wind power and natural gas plants shut down en masse, and without energy storage as a backup, millions of people suffered from freezing temperatures and power outages.

Power cuts in some regions of China: coal shortages and fluctuations in renewable energy have strained the grid, forcing power restrictions.

These examples show us that relying solely on thermal power is risky, and relying solely on renewable energy is also risky. The power system needs a more stable “combination strategy.”

Ⅱ. Power structures in different countries

Power sources vary significantly around the world:

China: Coal-fired power remains the main source, but in recent years, the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power has surged, and the “renewable energy + energy storage” model is gradually becoming a trend.

United States: A balanced approach between natural gas and renewable energy, while leading the world in battery energy storage technology, with California and other regions having built the world’s largest-scale energy storage power plants.

Europe: Germany and Spain are pioneers in wind and solar power, while France relies on nuclear power for grid stability. Europe as a whole is committed to energy transition, with storage system development accelerating.

Japan and South Korea: Highly dependent on imported energy, these countries must balance supply security while actively developing combinations of solar, hydrogen, and storage technologies.

Overall, all regions are moving toward the “renewable energy + storage” model, though at varying paces.

Ⅲ. What is the current situation?

New energy development is thriving, but it also faces challenges.

The “capriciousness” of photovoltaic and wind power: photovoltaic power can only be generated during the day when the sun is out, and it stops at night; wind power depends on the weather, and it stops during “windless periods.” This volatility puts pressure on the stable operation of the power grid.

The emergence of energy storage batteries: Lithium-ion batteries and flow batteries act like giant “power banks,” storing excess electricity during periods of surplus and releasing it during peak demand to help balance the grid.

Policy drivers: China has explicitly stipulated that new photovoltaic and wind power projects must be accompanied by energy storage facilities. The US and Europe, meanwhile, are using fiscal subsidies and market mechanisms to incentivize companies to build energy storage infrastructure.

Challenges remain: Energy storage batteries are costly, have limited lifespans, and their end-of-life recycling and reuse remain unresolved issues.

In other words, energy storage is gradually becoming widespread, but it will take time before it fully replaces traditional power sources.

Ⅳ. Why replace coal-fired power?

Environmental protection: Coal-fired power is a major contributor to carbon emissions, air pollution, and the greenhouse effect.

Energy security: Fluctuations in coal and natural gas prices directly impact electricity prices and supply.

Economic viability: Photovoltaic and wind power are becoming increasingly affordable, even more cost-effective than coal-fired power.

Carbon neutrality goals: To reduce emissions, coal-fired power must be phased out and eventually eliminated.

Ⅴ. Can it completely replace coal-fired power?

The answer is: Eventually, but not anytime soon.

Over the next 10 years, Coal-fired power will remain the “backbone” of the grid.

2030–2040: As energy storage becomes cheaper and hydrogen energy more reliable, coal-fired power will gradually move to the “bench.”

Around 2050: Renewable energy combined with energy storage is expected to take the lead, with coal-fired power largely phased out.

In other words, the future power system is likely to be: renewable energy and energy storage as the main sources, coal-fired power taking a backseat, with nuclear power, hydropower, and hydrogen energy providing supplementary support.

Energy storage batteries will increasingly be bundled with solar and wind power, just as smartphones cannot function without batteries. However, for renewable energy to completely replace coal-fired power, technological breakthroughs, policy support, and grid upgrades are still needed. The future may not see coal-fired power suddenly disappear, but rather it gradually retreating into the background until one day you realize that the power sector has already become dominated by clean energy.